The restaurant industry posted it’s gain in RPI in 3 months in July at 102.7. This was the 29th consecutive month that the index stood above 100.
The Current Situation Index saw the largest gain since December 2014 posting a 103.7. This marks the 17th consecutive month above 100 signaling expansion in the market.
July represented the 33rd consecutive month above 100 for the Expectations Index clocking in at 101.7. This tells us that operators are generally optimistic about the months ahead.
Here’s a video summary of the Restaurant Performance Index report:[embed]https://youtu.be/qzXCGIZbbOs[/embed]
I came across two articles today discussing restaurant delivery services, specifically in Seattle. One on Geek Wire and the other on The Stranger. Both of them were very different in the story they were telling which was interesting.
The Stranger talks about how Postmates is reeking havoc on the restaurant industry. Mainly causing “resentment” between the restaurant staff and the delivery drivers/couriers. The rift is around tips according to the article. The restaurant workers are missing out on any tips from the Postmates takeout orders that they would have normally gotten.
The couriers are getting some tips, but no tips are making it’s way to the restaurant workers. Postmates allows customers to enter a tip for the restaurant, but it’s confusing and not very clear how it works. So this tip doesn’t happen, ever. Apparently the way it works is there’s a $5 delivery fee which gets split 80/20 in favor of the courier. On top of the 20% ($1) of the delivery fee there’s also a 9% service charge on the order that goes to Postmates. The restaurant workers see nothing unless the courier leaves them something, which never happens.
If the numbers in the article are true the couriers aren’t exactly killing it on tips either. They get a $4 delivery fee plus an average tip of $1-$1.75 on average according to the article. So call it $5.50 per order. Seems like it would be tough to get enough orders in an hour to make it worthwhile, but I guess if you’re on a bike and not a car you don’t really have any expenses. Plus you’re exercising.
Click here for The Stranger article. There’s some salty language, but we’re all adults here.
The other article, more interesting in my opinion, was on Geek Wire about Amazon dipping it’s toes into the restaurant delivery market. As part of their new Prime Now service they are testing, with local employees, restaurant delivery.
If there’s any company that can figure this out it would be Amazon. They are already offering alcohol delivery in Seattle. In NYC they apparently offer delivery of prepackaged meals from a few stores, but you have to cook the meal once you get it, it’s not delivered hot. That’s the difference with the Seattle test.
It makes sense for Amazon to try this out, but it’s not like they can have a UPS driver swing by Chipotle and pick up a burrito on the way to your house. They’ll have to implement a delivery arm similar to Postmates. Now if they throw marijuana delivery into the mix they might have a winning combo.
You have to wonder how long these types of services will be affordable with prices inevitably going up across the board with minimum wage increases, increases in food costs etc. At some point I have to think that consumers would just assume go to the restaurant vs. pay the $5 plus 9%, plus tip on top of the meal price. But maybe you can’t put a price on convenience.
An article over the weekend in The Record interviews a few folks in the restaurant industry in norther New Jersey about some of the challenges they are facing around finding and keeping employees. It’s not just isolated to one specific function, but all employees in all departments that are becoming increasingly more difficult to staff.
According to the individuals referenced in the article the reasons are spread across the board. Here are some of the points made:
- Supply and demand – there seems to be more jobs available so there are other options to restaurants
- It’s hard work – long hours and on your feet the whole time, plus in the front of the house you need to deal with some unpleasant people from time to time. So with other options available potential employees opting for something a little easier
- The pay isn’t necessarily great. If you are a server or a bartender you can do decent depending on where you work, but it’s still long hours
- A slow down in immigration since the recession may have contributed as 11% of Hispanics are employed by hotels and restaurants
A natural response to a labor shortage is “pay more”. Not that easy in the restaurant industry as profits are very thin already. 4-6% according to the article. Payroll already accounts for 24% of net profits.
At this point there’s just no wiggle room without a price increase to consumers. It’s coming because soon minimum wage hikes will take care of the pay increase for restaurant owners. There will be no choice other than raise prices.
I have copied the full article below:
Long before the first lunch customer walks through the door, cooks at Grissini in Englewood Cliffs are hard at work.
Angelo Chimbo’s hands are a blur as he flicks at baby carrots with a red peeler. Behind him, Ismael Rodrigues feeds sheets of golden dough into a pasta machine, where it is cut into narrow tagliatelle. And chef Giuseppe Lentini deftly slices bits of fat off deep-pink hunks of filet mignon.
Workers like these are the “backbone” of the restaurant industry, said maitre d’ Michael De Vincenzi.
But chefs, as well as the waiters and waitresses who deliver their creations to the table, are becoming harder to find. According to a recent survey by the National Restaurant Association, more than half of restaurant owners find it a challenge to find and keep good workers.
A lot of it is simply supply and demand.
Americans eat out more these days, spending 43 cents of every food dollar away from home, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
“The economy is good, and people are spending more money than ever in the hospitality industry. We’re living in an area that’s saturated with restaurants,” said Michael Latour of Latour, a 17-year-old French restaurant in Ridgewood. “There aren’t enough workers to support them all.”
Restaurants can be lively, creative and glamorous places to work — for cooks who are passionate about food, and for extroverts who enjoy dealing with the public in the dining room. But the industry is defined by long hours, low pay and high pressure. And an improving job market means that workers have other options.
Even restaurant owners and managers will acknowledge the challenges of the work.
“If you’re a chef at a restaurant like mine, you’ve got to work six days a week, lunch and dinner,” said Tony Del Gatto, who owns the Westmount Country Club in Woodland Park, in addition to the 90-seat Grissini. “What kind of home life can you have?”
“It’s at least a 12-hour day,” said De Vincenzi. “You have to be born to do this work.”
Recently at Latour, waiter Ricardo DaSilva of Union, a 21-year-old student at Seton Hall University, started his day at 11 a.m., before the lunch crowd arrived, and expected to stay until the last dinner customer left — probably around 10 p.m.
During those long shifts, staff members are on their feet, whether they’re chefs or waiters. Inside the kitchen, the pace can be frenetic; the space, hot and crowded.
“It’s 100 degrees sometimes in the kitchen,” Latour said.
In the dining room, the heat sometimes comes from unhappy customers who expect a server to make things right.
And the pay scales are low.
According to the National Restaurant Association, median wages nationwide for restaurant workers range from a low of $8 an hour for dishwashers to a high of $19.35 for bartenders. Chefs are paid a median $12 an hour and waiters and waitresses about $16, with tips.
“People come out of the Culinary Institute of America with a lot of debt, and they’re not paying it off at $12 an hour,” said Christine Nunn, chef and co-owner of Picnic on the Square in Ridgewood. She has kept most of her kitchen staff through her tenure in three restaurants, but she’s looking for servers.
On a recent busy night, short of servers, Nunn had to work in the dining room. “I was hosting, I was bussing tables, I was pouring water,” she said.
Immigration a factor
Other analysts have pointed to a slowdown in immigration to the U.S. since the recession, because immigrants traditionally make up a significant share of restaurant workers. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 11 percent of Hispanic workers are employed in hotels and restaurants.
Another issue in North Jersey is that workers who live in less affluent areas sometimes struggle to find transportation to restaurant jobs in the suburbs.
According to the National Restaurant Association, 318,800 people in New Jersey, and about 14 million nationwide, work in restaurants. The industry has been adding jobs faster than the economy as a whole, according to the association.
The shortage of workers has forced restaurant operators to spend more time recruiting and training new employees, and to ask current employees to take on extra tasks — for example, a busboy substituting for a line cook when needed.
So, if there’s a shortage of workers, why don’t restaurants just bump up the paychecks?
The answer: They can’t afford to.
Profit margins average 4 percent to 6 percent at restaurants, according to the restaurant association. Payroll amounts to about 24 percent of restaurants’ net profits, a percentage that hasn’t changed much over the years, according to Sageworks, a financial analysis company.
“They work on a very thin profit margin,” said Dave Cohen, coordinator of the hotel-restaurant hospitality program at Bergen Community College. “You’re not putting 50 cents on the dollar into your pocket in the restaurant business.”
You might expect the Food Network’s shows about celebrity chefs would draw more people to the industry, but restaurant owners complain they paint an unrealistic picture.
No fast track
“Everybody thinks they can go to culinary school and immediately be a Food Network star,” said Nunn from Picnic on the Square. “Even with a degree, you take that $12-an-hour job and work 50 or 60 hours a week so you really learn how to be a chef.”
Cohen said that some culinary graduates would rather work in catering or even in supermarkets, which have shorter, more predictable hours.
Still, those who choose restaurants say they like the fast pace, the interaction with colleagues and customers and, in the case of chefs, the chance to work creatively with food.
“It’s a very expressive thing; it’s a reflection of your passion for food,” Latour said.
De Vincenzi, the maitre d’, was asked whether he likes his job better when the restaurant is quiet or crowded.
“Packed,” he said. “I want to be busy. I want it to be hectic. I like the stress. It’s all adrenaline.” He once thought of becoming an accountant, but after one day of a summer internship in college, he knew he didn’t want to sit at a desk.
Many restaurant workers are students looking for part-time work and flexible hours. The restaurant industry employs 1.5 million teenagers between 16 and 19 — or one-third of all working teens in the nation, according to the restaurant association’s figures.
Da Silva, the Latour waiter, said he is an extrovert who likes to talk to customers. The philosophy student said every customer “has something to teach you.”
“They’ll say something that catches your attention,” he said.
Other restaurant workers also say the relationship with diners is one of the best parts of the job. Victor Molina of West New York, a waiter who has worked for 10 years at Grissini, said he is gratified that some of the restaurant’s regulars ask for him by name.
“They know you and they trust you,” he said.
Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgTwitter: @KathleenLynn3
A preliminary look into employment data by Forbes Contributor Stephen Bronars points to slower employment growth since the minimum wage increases in San Francisco and Seattle.
In the article Higher Minimum Wages in San Francisco and Seattle Mean Fewer Restaurant Jobs takes a look at year over year quarterly changes in employment averages. Here are some of the points he makes regarding his choice of data to use:
- The minimum wage laws apply to cities but Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data are available for Metropolitan Divisions
- This is more problematic in Seattle where three out of four jobs in the metro division are outside the city limits, while two thirds of restaurant jobs in the San Francisco metro division are in the city
- In addition, the monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and subject to a substantial margin of error
I have copied the full article with charts below and it’s also linked above, but Stephen concludes the following, acknowledging that more analysis will be needed as more data becomes available:
- Had restaurant employment in San Francisco grown at the same rate as in the rest of the U.S., there would be 2,520 more restaurant jobs in the San Francisco metro division
- Had restaurant employment in Seattle grown at the same rate as in the rest of the U.S., there would be 1,175-1,490 more restaurant jobs in the Seattle metro division
Last year Seattle decided to increase its minimum wage to $15 per hour over several years. The first increase to $11 per hour, for large employers, became effective on April 15th. Last fall San Francisco also adopted a plan to increase its minimum wage to $15 over the next few years and the first increase to $12.25 per hour became effective on May 1st. Because many restaurant workers earn less than the new minimum wages, most economists expect restaurant employment to decline in these cities as competition encourages restaurants to economize on labor costs.
Earlier this month Mark Perry, of the American Enterprise Institute, observed that job creation in Seattle’s restaurant industry stalled in 2015, perhaps due to the minimum wage hike. Last week Erik Sherman, a Forbes contributor, took issue with Perry’s interpretation of the data and purported to show that employment in San Francisco’s restaurant industry has grown since its minimum wage increase.
In this post I take a closer look at restaurant industry employment in San Francisco and Seattle. Before turning to the data it is important to understand its limitations. The minimum wage laws apply to cities but Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data are available for Metropolitan Divisions. This is more problematic in Seattle where three out of four jobs in the metro division are outside the city limits, while two thirds of restaurant jobs in the San Francisco metro division are in the city. In addition, the monthly data are not seasonally adjusted and subject to a substantial margin of error. For this reason I focus on year-over-year changes in quarterly employment averages. I find that food service job growth slowed in Seattle since the minimum wage increase. In San Francisco, where more detailed data are available, there has been slower job growth in restaurants, but caterers and food trucks are growing more rapidly after the minimum wage increase.
About 40 percent of the typical household’s food budget is for meals away from home and this increases to 46 percent for households in the top income quintile (from the Consumer Expenditure Survey). The “Food Services and Drinking Places” industry is prominent in San Francisco and Seattle; it accounts for about 10 percent of private sector jobs in San Francisco and 7 percent in Seattle. This is not surprising because San Francisco and Seattle are among the wealthiest cities in the U.S.
Higher minimum wages will cause restaurants to economize on labor costs and hire fewer employees even in relatively wealthy cities. Competition will encourage food service companies to find less labor intensive methods of delivering prepared meals to their customers. For example, customers placing orders on computer tablets can reduce the demand for food servers.
San Francisco: Slowing Job Growth in Brick and Mortar Restaurants
The following table presents annual percentage changes in second quarter employment in several restaurant categories in the San Francisco metro division as well as the remainder of the U.S., and in San Francisco outside the food services industry. The table shows a slowdown in job growth in brick and mortar restaurants in the past year. The all restaurants industry group, which includes full service and limited service restaurants, snack bars, and cafeterias, saw job growth of only 0.31% in the past year. Restaurant employment grew much less rapidly than in other sectors in San Francisco in the past year. In addition, had restaurant employment grown at the same rate as in the rest of the U.S., there would be 2,520 more restaurant jobs in the San Francisco metro division.
There has, however, been rapid employment growth (33.5% in the past year or 2,800 jobs) in the Special Food Services industry, which includes caterers and food trucks. This continues a recent trend; employment at caterers and food trucks has more than doubled since 2011. Although caterers and food trucks accounted for less than 10% of food services jobs in San Francisco in 2014, they accounted for more than 60% of job growth in food services over the past year so that overall growth in food service jobs slowed by 1.7% in the past year.
Declining Food Service Employment in Seattle
The most detailed BLS employment data reported for the Seattle metro division is for the “Food Services and Drinking Places” industry group. The following table presents annual changes in second quarter employment for “Food Services and Drinking Places” in the Seattle metro division and the rest of the U.S., and private sector employment in the Seattle metro division outside the food services industry.
The table demonstrates that employment in the food services industry in the Seattle metro division grew more slowly than in other regions of the U.S. and more slowly than in other industries in Seattle. Depending on the alternative benchmark used there are 1,175 to 1,490 fewer food service jobs than there would have been had employment grown at the same rate as elsewhere.
While results based on preliminary and noisy data should be interpreted with caution, and more detailed studies will be required as city minimum wages increase even more, higher minimum wages appear to be disrupting the restaurant industry in San Francisco and Seattle and causing a reduction in jobs. In San Francisco minimum wages might be diverting customers to caterers and food trucks, perhaps because they are better equipped to adjust to higher labor costs. The first wave of minimum wage increases appears to have led to the loss of over 1,100 food service jobs in the Seattle metro division and over 2,500 restaurant jobs in the San Francisco metro division. These estimates are likely to be conservative, especially in Seattle, because many jobs in the metro division are outside the city limits and not subject to the minimum wage increase.
*This is a guest post by Stephen Bronars, Partner at Edgeworth Economics, Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago. His opinions are his own.
 The San Francisco metropolitan includes San Francisco and San Mateo Counties but excludes Alameda, Marin and Contra Costa Counties and the city of Oakland. The Seattle metropolitan division includes King County and Snohomish County but excludes Pierce County and the city of Tacoma.
 The Seattle calculation is based on the BLS LAUS data and the San Francisco calculation is based on County Business Patterns.
 According to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, San Francisco County ranks fifth and King County, Washington ranks sixteenth among the 340 largest counties in the U.S., ranked by median earnings
 The San Francisco minimum wage was set at $8.50 in 2004 and indexed to inflation. The increase from 2014 to 2015 was $1.51 compared to $0.32, $0.31 and $0.19 in previous years.
 This includes full service restaurants, limited service restaurants, cafeterias, snack and non-alcoholic beverage bars, drinking places, food service contractors, mobile food services and caterers.
 The Washington state minimum wage increased by $0.37, $0.15 and $0.13 per hour between 2011 and 2014, and the Seattle minimum wage increase from 2014 to 2015 was $1.68 per hour.
There’s an interesting article in the Washington Post, “Minimum-wage offensive could speed arrival of robot-powered restaurants”, suggesting that $15/hr minimum wage will accelerate the move to robots in restaurants.
It mentions that shedding labor in the restaurant industry isn’t a new phenomenon. According to the article in the late 60’s a McDonald’s would have 70-80 employees vs. 30-40 now. Pre-packaged food/ingredients, smarter/more efficient kitchen technology over the years has allowed restaurants to cut down on labor, but there hasn’t traditionally been a lot of talk about cutting FOH staff as there is now.
With the mobile technology revolution FOH staff is very much on the chopping block. Kiosks and tablets at the table offer customers very convenient options for ordering and settling up at the end. Of course some establishments clientele will require a knowledgeable human being to answer questions, suggest pairings based on tastes, etc. Specifically higher end full service restaurants. But most of the fast casual and quick service brands could absolutely move to more technology and not miss a beat. And matter of fact probably run better.
The thing with technology is that it will do whatever you program it to do. That’s good and bad at the same time because it will only do what you tell it to do. They won’t be very quick on their feet if you know what I mean. But they will never forget to up-sell. Ziosk is very popular right now for a reason.
Robots are coming whether we like it or not and I feel they would be coming regardless of minimum wage. There are other benefits of a robot other than wage ie. no human resource issues, always on time, no taxes, etc. As the article mentions there will always be a need for human labor, but their roles will change to more of a management role and ensuring that the robots are running properly. It’ll be more of a technical position, but also being able to pitch in and help as needed.
It’s going to be interesting to watch what happens over the next few years. I have copied the full Washington Post article below:
Crowded. That’s how Ed Rensi remembers what life was like working at McDonald’s in 1966. There were about double the number of people working in the store — 70 or 80, as opposed to the 30 or 40 there today — because preparing the food just took a lot more doing.
“When I first started at McDonald’s making 85 cents an hour, everything we made was by hand,” Rensi said — from cutting the shortcakes to stirring syrups into the milk for shakes. Over the years, though, ingredients started to arrive packaged and pre-mixed, ready to be heated up, bagged and handed out the window.
“More and more of the labor was pushed back up the chain,” said Rensi, who went on to become chief executive of the company in the 1990s. The company kept employing more grill cooks and cashiers as it expanded, but each one of them accounted for more of each store’s revenue as more sophisticated cooking techniques allowed each to become more productive.
The industry could be ready for another jolt as a ballot initiative to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour nears in the District and as other campaigns to boost wages gain traction around the country. About 30 percent of the restaurant industry’s costs come from salaries, so burger-flipping robots — or at least super-fast ovens that expedite the process — become that much more cost-competitive if the current federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour is doubled.
“The problem with the minimum-wage offensive is that it throws the accounting of the restaurant industry totally upside down,” said Harold Miller, vice president of franchise development for Persona Pizzeria, who also consults for other chains. “My position is: Pay your people properly, keep them longer, treat them right, and robots are going to be helpful in doing that, because it will help the restaurateur survive.”
Many chains are already at work looking for ingenious ways to take humans out of the picture, threatening workers in an industry that employs 2.4 million wait staffers, nearly 3 million cooks and food preparers and many of the nation’s 3.3 million cashiers.‘Why wait?’
The advent of fast-food chains may have ushered in an era of new efficiencies, but the industry as a whole has largely been resistant to cuts in labor. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, since 1987, labor productivity in limited-service restaurants has grown at a rate of only 0.3 percent per year, which is low compared with most other industries.
The market research company IBISWorld has calculated that the average number of employees at fast-food restaurants declined by fewer than two people over the past decade, from 17.16 employees to 15.28. And restaurants tend to rely more on labor than other food outlets: According to the National Restaurant Association, dining establishments average $84,000 in sales per worker, compared with $304,000 for grocery stores and $855,000 for gas stations.
The avalanche of rising costs is why franchisers are aggressively looking for technology that can allow them to produce more food faster with higher quality and lower waste. Dave Brewer is chief operating officer with Middleby Corp., which owns dozens of kitchen equipment brands, and is constantly developing new ways to optimize performance and minimize cost.
“The miracle is, the wage increase is driving the interest,” Brewer said. “But the innovation and the automation, they’re going after it even before the wages go up. Why wait?”
All that innovation helps restaurants streamline other parts of their operations — and draw more customers. Electronic menus can be constantly updated so that items that are out of stock can be removed. Connecting the point of the sale to the oven’s operating system allows precise amounts of food to be cooked, which helps cut down on costs. Other inventions save energy, reduce maintenance and better dispose of grease. On the digital side, restaurants are working on apps that include reward systems and location tracking that prompt customers to eat with them more frequently.
It’s possible that new inventions could start to eliminate positions faster than they have in the past.
The labor-saving technology that has so far been rolled out most extensively — kiosk and tablet-based ordering — could be used to replace cashiers and the part of the wait staff’s job that involves taking orders and bringing checks. Olive Garden said earlier this year that it would roll out the Ziosk system at all its restaurants, which means that all a server has to do is bring out the food.
Robots can even help cut down on the need for high-skilled workers such as sushi chefs. A number of high-end restaurants use machines for rolling rice out on sheets of nori, a relatively menial task that takes lots of time. Even though sushi chefs tend to make more than $15 an hour, they could be on the chopping block if servers need to make $15 an hour, too.
Of course, it’s possible to imagine all kinds of dramatic productivity enhancements. Persona Pizzeria’s Miller predicts that drone delivery systems will eventually get rid of the need to come into a restaurant at all, for example. Brewer has a bold prediction: He thinks that all the automation working its way into restaurants could eventually cut staffing levels in half. The remaining employees would just need to learn how to operate the machines and fix things when they break.
“You don’t want a $15-an-hour person doing something that the person who makes $7 an hour can do,” Brewer said. “It’s not downgrading the employees. It’s that the employees become managers of a bunch of different systems. They’ll become smarter and smarter.”The value of a human touch
Not everybody, however, agrees that machines could make that much of a dent in labor costs. Implementing new systems is expensive, and mistakes can be devastating. And for some concepts, it’s possible that the presence of employees is actually a restaurant’s competitive advantage. Compared with grocery stores and gas stations, many people come to restaurants exactly because they want some human interaction.
Andy Wiederhorn, chief executive of Fatburger — who is testing tablet systems in his sit-down chain, Buffalo’s Cafe — doubts improvements in technology are going to be enough to keep up with the mandated wage increases, especially when actual people can be his best sales tool.
“I think that tablets have a place at the table, but it’s pretty hard to ask questions, get suggestions from a tablet. I don’t think they replace a server, they make a server more efficient,” Wiederhorn said. “We’re selling hamburgers shakes and fries, and [customers] want to talk to somebody and say, ‘Here’s how I want it.’ So I think in the hospitality industry, to assume that technology will take the place of workers is a false assumption.”
That’s why some restaurants have tiptoed in the direction of increased automation, rather than sprinted, even as minimum-wage hikes loom.
“Because the industry remains overall an industry of hospitality, their challenge remains how to remain high-touch in a high-tech environment,” said Hudson Riehle, the National Restaurant Association’s senior vice president for research and knowledge. If they’re not careful, restaurants could jettison the one thing that kept people coming through the doors.
“Being a service industry, and the need to deliver a personalized experience, means that many of the restaurant operators focus on ensuring that the overall customer experience remains competitive,” Riehle said.
We have been actively following the minimum wage hike in Seattle very closely at OpsAnalitica. We have written four blogs about it this year. We found this article from the American Enterprise Institutes that discusses restaurant job losses in Seattle since the beginning of 2015, it is only 3 paragraphs so I encourage you to read the whole article. To keep politics to a minimum the American Enterprise Institue is a center right leaning organization according to wikipedia. Here are the points that I found most interesting in there article:
- Seattle city council passed a $15 minimum wage law to be phased in over time, with the first increase to $11 an hour taking effect on April 1, 2015.
- The chart below shows that the Emerald City MSA started experiencing a decline in restaurant employment around the first of the year (when the state minimum wage increased to $9.47 per hour, the highest state minimum wage in the country), and the 1,300 job loss between January and June is the largest decline over that period since 2009 during the Great Recession (data here).
- The loss of 1,000 restaurant jobs in May following the minimum wage increase in April was the largest one month job decline since a 1,300 drop in January 2009, again during the Great Recession.
- In contrast to the January-June loss of restaurant jobs in the Seattle area: a) restaurant employment nationally increased by 130,700 jobs (and by 1.2%) during that same period (data here), b) overall employment in the Seattle MSA increased 1.2% and by 21,800 jobs (data here) and c) non-Seattle MSA restaurant employment in Washington state increased 3.2% and by 2,800 jobs(data here).
My issue with the Seattle minimum wage hike is that it isn’t being applied evenly, it is stacked against franchise operators from larger chains. You could have two sub shops in the same strip center owned by the same person. One a Subway or Quiznos and the other a non-franchise operation. The employees would be paid at different rates as the franchise shop would have to pay more for labor creating unfair competitive environment for the non-franchise operation. Don’t forget that your local Subway is often times owned by your neighbor who wanted to be part of a national chain for advertising and support.
You can read the article below or click here to see the original.
In June of last year, the Seattle city council passed a $15 minimum wage law to be phased in over time, with the first increase to $11 an hour taking effect on April 1, 2015. What effect will the eventual 58% increase in labor costs have on small businesses, including area restaurants? It’s too soon to tell for sure, but there is already some evidence that the recent minimum wage hike to $11 an hour, along with the pending increase of an additional $4 an hour by 2017 for some businesses, has started having a negative effect on restaurant jobs in the Seattle area.
The chart below shows that the Emerald City MSA started experiencing a decline in restaurant employment around the first of the year (when the state minimum wage increased to $9.47 per hour, the highest state minimum wage in the country), and the 1,300 job loss between January and June is the largest decline over that period since 2009 during the Great Recession (data here). The loss of 1,000 restaurant jobs in May following the minimum wage increase in April was the largest one month job decline since a 1,300 drop in January 2009, again during the Great Recession. In contrast to the January-June loss of restaurant jobs in the Seattle area: a) restaurant employment nationally increased by 130,700 jobs (and by 1.2%) during that same period (data here), b) overall employment in the Seattle MSA increased 1.2% and by 21,800 jobs (data here) and c) non-Seattle MSA restaurant employment in Washington state increased 3.2% and by 2,800 jobs(data here).
Perhaps Seattle’s restaurant employment will recover, or perhaps it will continue to suffer from the upcoming full 58% increase in labor costs for the city’s restaurants that will be phased in during the coming years – time will tell. What we know for sure is that there are now 1,300 Seattle area restaurant workers who were employed in January who are no longer employed today, so it looks like the Seattle minimum wage hike is getting off to a pretty bad start.
A press release from the National Restaurant Association today reported that the restaurant industry added 29,300 (seasonally adjusted) jobs in July. This is the 17th time in the last 18 months that the industry posted job growth of 20,000 or more. Here are some more stats from the article:
- The industry is on pace to post job growth in excess of 3.5% for the 4th consecutive year – this hasn’t happened since the mid 80’s
- Foodservice contractors led the way during the first half of the year, adding jobs at a robust 6.8
- Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars added jobs at a healthy 6.6 percent
- The catering and mobile food service segment has continued its steady expansion in 2015, with employment growing at a strong 6.2 percent
- Quickservice restaurants added jobs at a solid 3.8 percent
- The fullservice segment expanded payrolls at a 3.5 percent rate
I have copied the full press release below:
Restaurant industry employment continued its upward trajectory in July, adding at least 20,000 jobs for the 17th time in the last 18 months. The industry is on pace to post job growth of at least 3.5 percent for the fourth consecutive year – a streak that hasn’t happened since the mid-1980s, according to the NRA’s chief economist Bruce Grindy. His Economist’s Notebook commentary and analysis appears regularly onRestaurant.org and Restaurant TrendMapper.
Washington, DC (Restaurant News Release) Restaurant industry job growth remained steady and solid in July, according to preliminary figures from theBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Eating and drinking places added a net 29,300 jobs in July on a seasonally-adjusted basis, marking the 17th time in the last 18 months in which the industry added at least 20,000 jobs.
The recent gains put the restaurant industry on track to add jobs at a strong 3.7 percent rate in 2015. This would represent the fourth consecutive year with restaurant job growth of at least 3.5 percent – a streak that hasn’t happened since the mid-1980s.
Within the restaurant industry, job growth has been broad-based in 2015. Foodservice contractors led the way during the first half of the year, adding jobs at a robust 6.8 percent rate on a year-to-date basis through June. In addition, this segment’s solid 2015 growth is following an even stronger 7.7 percent payroll expansion in 2014.
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars – including coffee, donut and ice cream shops – added jobs at a healthy 6.6 percent rate during the first half of 2015. If this pace continues, it would represent the fourth consecutive year in which snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars posted job growth of at least 5 percent.
The catering and mobile food service segment has continued its steady expansion in 2015, with employment growing at a strong 6.2 percent on a year-to-date basis through June.
Quickservice restaurants added jobs at a solid 3.8 percent rate during the first half of 2015, while the fullservice segment expanded payrolls at a 3.5 percent rate.
Founded in 1919, the National Restaurant Association is the leading business association for the restaurant industry, which comprises 1 million restaurant and foodservice outlets and a workforce of 14 million employees. We represent the industry in Washington, D.C., and advocate on its behalf. We operate the industry’s largest trade show (NRA Show May 21-24, 2016, in Chicago); leading food safety training and certification program (ServSafe); unique career-building high school program (the NRAEF’s ProStart); as well as the Kids LiveWell program promoting healthful kids’ menu options. For more information, visit Restaurant.org and find us on Twitter @WeRRestaurants, Facebook and YouTube.